As the European Union (EU) enters 2024, the economic forecast reveals challenges and resilience. The latest Winter Economic Forecast from the European Commission downgrades growth projections, indicating a cautious beginning to the year. Revised figures anticipate a modest growth of 0.9% for the EU and 0.8% for the Eurozone in 2024, which is down from earlier expectations. On the other side of the news, Portugal has emerged as an important EU economy, attracting international investors worldwide. With a positive 0.8% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth, Portugal rebounded in 2023 from a brief economic contraction.
Portugal Strives for Growth Surrounded by European Union Resilience
Observing the robust growth in Portugal, Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni highlighted, "The fact that the European Union has managed to sidestep recession is positive. Moreover, countries such as Portugal continue to record a high level of GDP growth". Mr. Gentiloni made the statement during a press conference on the 16th of February 2024 in Brussels on the day that the Winter Economic Forecasts from the institution predicted a 1.2% economic growth for Portugal in 2024 and a further increase to 1.8% in 2025. When delving into his statement, Mr. Gentiloni contextualised the Portuguese economic slowdown, attributing it to the "deceleration in the region as a whole".
The Commissioner acknowledged a slight downward revision of a tenth of a percentage point for Portugal's GDP in 2024 but highlighted that it remains above the averages for both the Eurozone and the European Union.
The news regarding Portuguese economic growth reached international importance after another important headline was published by Eurostat in January 2024. The European Union’s statistics office, Eurostat, revealed a significant triumph for Portugal's Fiscal Responsibility policy, as the country has successfully exited the list of the top five most indebted EU nations. This noteworthy development emphasises Portugal’s recent remarkable economic progress, solidifying the country’s reputation as an attractive destination for investments.
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Portuguese Real Estate Market in 2024
Unveiling the Portuguese Economy: 2024 & 2025 expectations
Looking ahead to 2024 and 2025, optimism prevails in the Portuguese economy. Portugal's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, released by the Statistics Portugal (INE – National Statistics Institute), on the 30th of January 2024 informs positive numbers for the country's economy.
The Portuguese GDP recorded a year-on-year variation of 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, following a 1.9% increase in the preceding quarter. The contribution of domestic demand to the year-on-year GDP variation remained high, fuelled by an acceleration in internal private consumption and a deceleration in investment. Notably, net external demand turned positive, with exports outpacing imports in volume growth.
Comparing 2023’s fourth and third quarter, the Portuguese GDP increased by 0.8% in volume, reflecting an uptick in domestic demand driven by consumption. The contribution of net external demand was positive but less intense than in 2022. For the entirety of 2023, the GDP exhibited a growth of 2.3% in volume, following a remarkable 6.8% increase in 2022 – the highest since 1987. As the EU economic bloc faces its challenges in 2024, Portugal rises from a deficit country to one of the strongest European bets for years to come, putting the country on the radar for international investors, or foreign nationals looking for a stable place to settle.
Lisbon's Ascendance in the 2024 European Real Estate Landscape
Following up with the recent news putting Portugal in the European economic spotlight, the 2024 Emerging Trends in Real Estate in Europe, an annual report by PwC and the Urban Land Institute, highlights the confidence in the Portuguese property market. Lisbon, the country's capital, has experienced a remarkable ascent, solidifying its position as one of the most appealing European cities for real estate investments in 2024. In just two years, Portugal’s capital rose from the 16th position in 2022 to an impressive 8th place in 2024. Based on the report's credibility, one can infer that house prices in Portugal are unlikely to decrease in the coming years; rather, they are poised for continued growth.
Lisbon takes centre stage as the nation's primary economic hub, drawing both Portuguese residents and expats due to its laid-back lifestyle and entrepreneurial atmosphere.
Undoubtedly, Lisbon is currently the premier location for foreigners to reside in Europe. In 2023, the property market outlook for Lisbon already indicated a significant increase in property values, and this assessment may even prove to be conservative as 2024 unfolds.
As market regulations gradually take effect, there may yet be a noticeable impact, evident in the limited availability of real estate products for sale. As a Real Estate agency, Portugal Homes boasts a variety of products, ranging from one-bedroom apartments to villas and luxurious townhouses, suitable for any kind of investor seeking to make Portugal their Residency.
We also facilitate the acquisition of Residency Visas, most notably through the Portugal D2 and Golden Visas. Right now, Portugal Homes has the best D2 Visa services on the market with Mátria 280K Investment Option – a straight path to Residency in Portugal in 3 months, and Citizenship in 5 years. Get in touch with us today to find out more!
